The NFL odds for the upcoming season often reflect recent team performance trends, but these reflections are based on the public’s perception of how good or bad those teams are.
This affords opportunities when making NFL picks and predictions, as the public primarily looks at past performance and often doesn’t examine the forward-looking factors that can change the course of team performance.
This review will dive into those factors to help you when making wagers on futures markets at NFL betting apps.
In doing so, we’ve identified five teams and their associated odds at sports betting apps that should make for solid fade wagers for the 2024 season.
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5 NFL Teams to Fade for the 2024 NFL Season
Cincinnati Bengals under 10.5 wins
Odds: +115 at Caesars Sportsbook
Joe Burrow is returning from his hand injury, so all should be well for Cincinnati this year, right? Not really, as the Bengals have an incredibly brutal schedule. In the first 11 weeks, Cincinnati has road matchups against Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Chargers to go along with home battles versus Baltimore and Philadelphia.
Add in the traditional matchups against the AFC North (arguably the toughest division in the NFL) and a Week 14 Monday night game at Dallas and it will be very difficult for the Bengals to hit 11 wins.
This means a bet on the under, which can be made by signing up for the sportsbook promos detailed here, has a very good chance of being a winner at season’s end.
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Buffalo Bills to Miss the 2024 NFL playoffs
Odds: +140 at DraftKings
The Bills have made the playoffs in five straight seasons, but this year is shaping up as the time that this streak ends. The key factor here is that this club lost too much talent. Star WR Stefon Diggs is now in Houston, and the defense saw Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White and Leonard Floyd all leave Buffalo.
The Bills didn’t bring in enough defensive talent to offset those losses and their receiving corps is unproven. Whether those factors are being reflected in the odds at the best online sportsbooks will be for you to decide.
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Dallas Cowboys to Lose In Wild-Card Round
Odds: +200 at FanDuel
The Cowboys are seen as the second-best team in the NFC East and thus ranks a strong contender to win the NFC, but this is a club with many weaknesses. Ezekiel Elliott is not suited to be a lead back anymore, the offensive line is not what it used to be, and the drop-off from CeeDee Lamb to the rest of the Dallas receiving corps is immense.
This club still has enough defensive skill to get into the NFC playoffs, but the competition there is too fierce to allow for an advance past the Wild-Card round.
You can make a bet on this by signing up for one or more of the NFL betting promos listed here, and in doing so get yourself up to thousands of dollars of first-bet protection and bonus bets.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 8.5 Wins
Odds: -155 at Caesars Sportsbook
The Buccaneers have won the NFC South for three straight years and brought just about everyone back from last year’s squad, so why are they being picked for under 8.5 wins?
It’s the incredibly difficult schedule. From Weeks 2-10, Tampa Bay faces Detroit, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City and San Francisco. They also have two matchups against Atlanta, a division rival that should be one of the most-improved teams in the league.
Tampa Bay then has road games in four of the next six weeks after a Week 11 bye. Add it up and this team has a schedule challenge that might be unmatched this year.
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Green Bay Packers to Win the NFC
Odds: +800 at DraftKings
While our first four wagers were ones to make, this last one is a tempting one that you should AVOID.
There is no doubt that Jordan Love is now one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. Green Bay also has the deepest wide receiver corps in the league and brought in Josh Jacobs to help with the ground game. Understandably, this franchise is a favorite to win the NFC and seemingly makes this a strong wager.
The problem here is that the Packers defense is still shaky at best. There's a chance Green Bay gets into as many as nine shootout games this year. Those are 50/50 propositions at best and the NFC playoffs will also have potential shootouts that the Packers will be hard-pressed to win, so don’t place too much faith in these odds.
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KC Joyner is one of the pioneers of the football analytics movement. His Scientific Football 2005 book was lauded as the best work of its kind by legendary SI writer Paul “Dr Z.” Zimmerman and its publication led to a 14-year career with ESPN where he covered fantasy football, the NFL, the NFL Draft, daily fantasy, NFL betting and college football.
KC has been providing various content, including multiple in-season NFL picks and player prop articles, since 2022. He also self publishes fantasy football draft guides and start-sit services via his website TheFootballScientist.com and provides weekly fantasy football advice through his articles at The Athletic.
KC is originally from Michigan, but many years ago he migrated to the warmer climate of central Florida, where he lives with his wife and two children.
